Bank of Canada’s interest rate announcement – Implications for the Canadian real estate market and economy
What does today’s 50 basis point interest rate cut mean for the Canadian commercial real estate market?
Key highlights
- The BoC has historically been hesitant to adjust rates more than 25 bps at a time, so today’s decision to cut Canadian interest rates by 50 bps likely reflects concerns about a slowing economy and the risks of deflation
- Inflation in the third quarter of the year was lower than BoC estimates; the rate in September fell to 1.6%, the first time this rate has been below 2% in more than three years
- The employment rate has been trending downward as employment growth lags population growth; on a year-over-year basis, employment was up 1.5% in September, while the population (aged 15+) increased 3.6%
- When a large cut is announced, it demonstrates a concern that consumers are running out of gas and that the BoC is hoping to ignite the markets before tipping into a recession
- Today’s BoC rate announcement is surely welcome news; however, a more tangible CRE recovery – defined by transaction activity – is still only percolating, rather than materializing in the market
- Even with a cut of this magnitude, CRE transactions will likely remain on the sidelines until mid-2025, when there is confidence that monetary conditions have balanced
BoC slashes Canadian interest rates by 50 basis points
Unprecedented times call for unprecedented action – this was, if anything, the guiding principle throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, as the world came to a collective standstill. Now, with the pandemic firmly in our rearview mirror, the Canadian economy finds itself at a rather precarious point in its recalibration. Years ago, Canadian interest rates began to climb in response to rising inflation concerns. The Bank of Canada’s (BoC) decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) today, however, reflects concerns about a slowing economy and the risks of deflation. Currently, the economy is experiencing more supply than demand and prices are falling. Still, employment growth is positive and GDP has nudged up from a soft landing.
Leading up to today’s BoC rate announcement, the market wasn’t questioning whether or not the BoC would cut rates; but rather, by how much. Expectations for consecutive cuts have been fueled by cooling inflation. With Canada’s annual inflation rate slowing more than expected in September to 1.6% (the smallest annual increase in consumer prices since February 2021), the writing for further cuts was seemingly painted across the wall.
However, the BoC has historically been hesitant to adjust rates more than 25 bps at a time, and today’s decision may confirm growing fears pertaining to the dwindling strength of Canada’s economy and job market. In the past, larger-than-expected adjustments to lending rates have indicated a crisis – is today’s decision confirmation of turbulence ahead, or a corrective measure that will help the economy maintain stability? More importantly, what does today’s interest rate decision mean for the Canadian commercial real estate market as we approach the final stretch of 2024?
Canada’s softening labour market comes to the forefront
At the BoC’s rate announcement in September, it became clear that attention was shifting from inflation data to weakening labour market data. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem acknowledged the need to shift policy focus from inflation control to boosting the Canadian economy.
As the inflation rate fell to 1.6% in September, the employment rate has also been trending downward as employment growth lags population growth. On a year-over-year basis, employment rose 1.5% in September, while the population (aged 15+) increased 3.6%.
The participation rate—the percentage of the working-age population that is employed or looking for a job—also dropped in September, the third decline in four months and the continuation of a downward trend since late 2023. Changes to Canada’s Temporary Foreign Worker (TFW) program, which include a 10% cap on low-wage temporary foreign workers across Canada, came into effect on September 26th. The Canadian government hopes that these modifications to the program will ensure employers “make a greater effort” to hire available Canadian talent before turning to foreign workers. Over the next 90 days, the TFW program will be reviewed and, where necessary, modified further.
Source: “Altus Group“