Toronto Home Sales Expected to Rise 12% in 2025 Despite January Decline
The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) has projected a significant 12.4% increase in home sales for 2025, with an estimated 76,000 properties changing hands across the region. This forecast is attributed to lower borrowing costs, which are expected to enhance affordability and drive increased buyer activity.
Toronto Real Estate Market Trends for 2025 Projected Increase in Sales and Prices TRREB anticipates that the average selling price of homes will climb to $1,147,000 in 2025, marking a 2.6% rise from the previous year. The growth will be particularly strong in the single-family home segment, as buyers capitalize on reduced mortgage rates.
Jason Mercer, TRREB’s Chief Market Analyst, stated, “A growing number of homebuyers will take advantage of lower borrowing costs as we move toward the 2025 spring market, resulting in increased transactions and a moderate uptick in average selling prices.” However, Mercer also cautioned that economic uncertainties, including trade disruptions, could momentarily dampen consumer confidence.
Buyer and Seller SentimentsRecent data from Ipsos revealed that 28% of respondents expressed an intent to buy a home in 2025, while 37% indicated a likelihood of selling. First-time buyers are expected to make up a significant portion of the market, accounting for 42% of prospective homebuyers.
Competitive Market for Affordable HomesDavelle Morrison, a broker with Bosley Real Estate Ltd., noted that competition is intensifying at the lower end of the market, especially for homes priced around $1 million. “Above that, things are a little slower, but there’s still interest,” Morrison said.
She further emphasized that current market conditions present an opportunity for buyers. “This is a good time to buy, partly because there is some uncertainty, but also because rates are low. If everybody else is hesitant, acting now could mean securing a better price before competition drives it higher.”
January 2025: A Slow Start for Toronto Home Sales Despite the positive outlook for 2025, January data indicated a 7.9% decline in home sales compared to the same month in 2024, with 3,847 transactions recorded.
Average Selling Price: $1,040,994 (1.5% increase YoY)
Composite Benchmark Price: Up 0.44% YoY
New Listings: 12,392 (48.6% increase YoY)
In the City of Toronto, sales decreased by 4.7% to 1,386 transactions, while the rest of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) saw a more significant 9.6% decline, totaling 2,461 sales.
Property Type Performance in January Semi-Detached Homes: Sales increased by 2.9%
Detached Homes: Sales dropped by 8.4%
Townhouses: Sales fell by 4.2%
Condos: Largest decline at 12.1%
Looking Ahead: Is Now the Right Time to Buy? While the threat of U.S. tariffs and broader economic concerns loom, experts suggest that current market conditions favor buyers willing to act decisively. As borrowing costs remain low and competition gradually heats up, purchasing before the spring rush may yield better deals.
Industry professionals stress that those who delay their purchase might face increased prices and fiercer competition later in the year. With a projected 12.4% rise in sales, the Toronto real estate market is gearing up for an active 2025.
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