{"id":67725,"date":"2024-10-21T19:41:49","date_gmt":"2024-10-21T19:41:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/condoy.com\/?p=67725"},"modified":"2024-10-21T23:37:05","modified_gmt":"2024-10-21T23:37:05","slug":"td-predicts-bump-in-housing-market-activity-fall-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/condoy.com\/td-predicts-bump-in-housing-market-activity-fall-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Interesting News on Housing Market Activity: TD Economist Predicts a \u2018Sizeable\u2019 Bump in Housing Market Activity This Quarter (Fall 2024)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">An economist with TD Bank says he expects to see a significant increase in housing market activity from now until the end of the year as more buyers come off the sidelines in the wake of interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada.<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"720\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1280 \/ 720;\" width=\"1280\" controls src=\"https:\/\/condoy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Health-of-Canadas-Housing-Market-21-10-2024.mp4\"><\/video><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In an interview with BNN Bloomberg on Wednesday, Rishi Sondhi said that he expects homebuyers to jump back into the market in big numbers in the fourth quarter as lower rates improve affordability nationwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIn our latest forecast we put out in mid September, we had a fairly sizeable increase in quarter-on-quarter Canadian home sales in the fourth quarter of this year, reflecting the extent of the rate relief that we have in the system and additional relief that we\u2019re expecting,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Bank of Canada has lowered its trend-setting overnight rate by a quarter percentage point at each of its last three meetings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Experts are predicting another cut when bank the bank meets again next week, and Tuesday\u2019s favourable consumer price index (CPI) print has many expecting a \u201cjumbo\u201d 50-basis-point cut, including all but one of Canada\u2019s largest banks, Bloomberg reported Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sondhi said a 50-basis-point cut would likely \u201chold some psychological meaning\u201d for would-be buyers in addition to the tangible relief it would provide, leading to \u201ca sizeable increase in activity\u201d in the next few months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2018Some movement happening\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"959\" height=\"539\" src=\"https:\/\/condoy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/housing-market-activity.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-67755\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/condoy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/housing-market-activity.jpg 959w, https:\/\/condoy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/housing-market-activity-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/condoy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/housing-market-activity-768x432.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 959px) 100vw, 959px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">housing market activity<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>While he expects the housing market activity to heat up in the coming months, Sondhi said the Bank of Canada\u2019s most recent rate cuts haven\u2019t spurred as much activity as would be expected based on previous rate-easing cycles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThere is some movement happening as a result of lower interest rates, but probably less so than one would typically get given the extent of the rate relief,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe chalk it up to mainly that the U.S Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada have really signalled that they\u2019re going to be taking their policy rate even lower from where it is now, so we think that buyers are on the sidelines waiting for interest rates to come even lower before jumping in.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Victor Tran, mortgage and real estate expert with RATESDOTCA, shares that sentiment, telling BNN Bloomberg in an emailed statement Wednesday that \u201cbuyers don\u2019t want to catch a falling knife.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019re heading for the bottom of the market, but we don\u2019t know when it will be, and buyers are hesitant to move too soon and miss out on a lower rate before home prices begin to rise substantially,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Like Sondhi, Tran also predicts an increase in sales activity either late this year or in early 2025, which he said could revive home prices and \u201ckick start a housing rush as buyers may consider that an indicator of the market turning.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThey may want to make a move before they miss what they believe is their chance. They\u2019ll want to know they got in at a time when prices and rates were low,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sondhi noted that home prices have largely trended flat across Canada in the months since the Bank of Canada first cut rates in June, so those potential homebuyers who have decided to wait haven\u2019t yet been penalized for their decision to do so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Uneven price growth expected nationally<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>When it comes to the potential for growth in home values in the coming months, some areas are more primed for price increases than others, Sondhi said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe still think that the Prairies are poised for some pretty solid price growth moving forward\u2026 jurisdictions like Alberta are still seeing robust population growth and sales levels are quite elevated there,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe do think that Ontario and B.C. will lag a little bit with respect to price growth at least over sort of a longer-term horizon, say through the entirety of next year and 2026, and that\u2019s really a function of a strained affordability backdrop.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sondhi said other areas like Quebec and the Atlantic provinces are likely to fall somewhere in between those two extremes, \u201csupported by tight conditions in those markets.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>More to read &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/condoy.com\/attainable-housing-is-in-short-supply\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"67731\">Attainable housing is in short supply&#8230;<\/a>&#8220;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mortgage rule changes<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Two recently announced changes to mortgage regulations by the federal government are also expected to help spur increased sales activity in the near future, Sondhi said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>First-time homebuyers will soon be able to pay off a mortgage over a period of 30 years, up from the current maximum of 25 years, and homebuyers will also soon be able to take out insured mortgages for properties priced up to $1.5 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sondhi said that while these measures will help make homeownership more affordable in theory, home prices will end up being higher than they would have been without those policies in place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIt will definitely add a boost\u2026 particularly in the first half of next year. I do think a nuance worth pointing out is that prices will be higher than they would have been absent these policies. That implies an affordability erosion,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThat affordability erosion will eat into the benefit to sales and prices derived from these policies.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bnnbloomberg.ca\/business\/real-estate\/2024\/10\/16\/td-economist-predicts-sizeable-bump-in-housing-market-activity-this-quarter\/#:~:text=An%20economist%20with%20TD%20Bank,by%20the%20Bank%20of%20Canada.\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Reference: bnnbloomberg.ca<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>An economist with TD Bank says he expects to see a significant increase in housing market activity from now until the end of the year as more buyers come off the sidelines in the wake of interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. In an interview with BNN Bloomberg on Wednesday, Rishi Sondhi said [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":67726,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,4],"tags":[1406,1411,1404,1409,1366,1412,1361,1405,1407,1413],"class_list":["post-67725","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-torontos-condo-market","tag-housingboom","tag-housingmarkettrends","tag-housingmarketupdate","tag-marketactivity","tag-markettrends","tag-realestateeconomics","tag-realestateforecast","tag-realestategrowth","tag-tdeconomist","tag-housing-market-activity"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/condoy.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67725","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/condoy.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/condoy.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/condoy.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/condoy.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=67725"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/condoy.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67725\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":67760,"href":"https:\/\/condoy.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67725\/revisions\/67760"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/condoy.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media\/67726"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/condoy.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=67725"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/condoy.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=67725"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/condoy.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=67725"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}